I’ll be watching Florida very closely on Election Night. This format — populated here with 2016 vs 2012 data — for looking at county-level data could provide some interesting insights throughout the night.
Florida has a reputation for quickly processing its mail-in ballots and could therefore possibly be in a position to make a “call” on Election Night. It’s a must-win state for Trump. If Biden is doing well here on Election Night, Democrats could possibly breath a bit easier.
Obama won Florida by 0.9% in 2012, then Trump won by 1.3% in 2016 — a “red shift” of 2.2%. Digging down to county-level data reveals the sharp partisan divide. The blue counties got a lot bluer, and red ones redder. We’ll see if that trend continues.
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